What are the odds of anything? The top card in a deck is red -1/2. A heart -1/4. A 3 of hearts – 1/4*1/13 = 1/52. What are the odds of winning the lottery? Getting hit by an asteroid? Falling in love? Some odds are fixed by the parameters, some we can alter by our actions. Does it matter?
If you are faced with any decision between two choices, assuming a random outcome is possible, the odds are 1/2 that any person will make the same choice as you. If the choice is a public washroom, some variables change.
When faced with a decision, do you diligently, do the math? Do you know, because of experience? Do you decide intuitively? Some weird personal combination of all three? Have you kept a record of how things worked out? Is your judgement, like mine, clouded by bias and flawed memories?
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